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Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season/August-September
August and September Welcome to August in the WPAC! With the MJO in full swing here, I definitely think we are looking at an active month here. 9''' depressions, '''7 storms, 5''' severe tropical storms, '''4 typhoons, and an ACE of 90 units is what I would expect from here. AndrewTalk To Me 02:25, August 1, 2014 (UTC) 07E.GENEVIEVE See here. AndrewTalk To Me 07:16, August 8, 2014 (UTC) 96W.INVEST 96W.INVEST NRL reported an invest with winds of 15 knots (15 mph) and a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa). I don't know much else about this system. AndrewTalk To Me 00:06, August 14, 2014 (UTC) 99W.INVEST 99W.INVEST Looks like we've lost interest in the WPac during the epicness of the EPac and Cristobal in the Atlantic. We've missed a few invests, but none of them did much, and this one isn't expected to do much either. Having no storms worldwide on this day is unusual, for being one of the most active days of the year worldwide. It's also the ninth anniversary of Katrina, god bless the victims of that storm. Ryan1000 20:58, August 29, 2014 (UTC) : And dead...Ryan1000 23:33, August 30, 2014 (UTC) : I read in WU from a post that a repectful blogger did that this have been the first August in satelite era that there haven't been any named storms in the Wpac to form. Without counting Genevieve.Allanjeffs 00:35, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::: And Halong, which lasted through the first 11 days of the month and eventually hit Japan. Anyways, the WPac's quiet streak is kinda ending now, with two TD's, Karding (PAGASA name) nearing Hainan Island and another one south of Japan, moving out to sea. No JMA named storms yet though...*yawn*''Ryan1000'' 19:00, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::: The WPac is getting way too inactive lately. I hope one of those JMA TD's become named. If this inactivity continues we might have a WPac season that would reveal 2010!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:24, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::: You mean rival, but I doubt that will happen. We've got 13 storms, 6 typhoons, and 4 major typhoons (counting Genny) thus far, with the rest of September-November left to have more storms. We'd have to have no storms the rest of the year to beat 2010's record, at least 1 more typhoon, and no more majors. It's fair to say this year will probably be less active than normal, but not to the point of setting record lows in activity. WPac peaks in October and early November, and ramps up in September. Ryan1000 20:45, September 6, 2014 (UTC) 14W.NONAME JMA Tropical Depression (Karding) Headed towards Hainan Island. Might not become named by JMA though. Ryan1000 19:00, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :Currently located at 16.5N 116.9E, Invest 92W has had flaring deep convection over a consolidating LLCC, as noted on satellite imagery. Fragmented convective banding is wrapping into the center per a 0140Z METOP-B microwave image. With low to moderate VWS of five to ten knots and good equatorial outflow, 92W should develop into a TD at most. A TCFA has also been issued by the JTWC, estimating winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h) (1-minute) and a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). On the JMA side, they report winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg), with brief intensification to a 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute)/998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg) before striking Hainan. I'd rather have this depression to be named Kalmaegi, simply because that name is not as lucky intensitywise as Fengshen, the next allocated name, is. Also, in case you're wondering, Kanor, what should have been the PAGASA name for this system, it was removed due to association with Meng Kanor, notorious for some sort of scandal. AndrewTalk To Me 20:58, September 6, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 14W Here, but might not become named before it hits Hainan. Ryan1000 11:54, September 7, 2014 (UTC) 13W.FENGSHEN JMA Tropical Depression Currently south of Japan, should die soon though. Ryan1000 19:00, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :Actually, I would beg to differ. MSI reveals a broadly defined LLCC is wrapping into the center of Invest 91W''s circulation. Poleward outflow is also very good due to an STR over the Korean Peninsula. Due to low VWS and favorable SST's, the JTWC has issued a TCFA in anticipation for 91W's development into a TC. Winds are estimated to be at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h) (1-minute sustained), with a pressure estimate of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). Unfortunately, the JMA, who reports winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg), forecasts development into a weak, 40 knot (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute)/994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) tropical storm. The next name on the list, ''Fengshen, is one of my favorite WPAC names because it is the name of the Chinese god of wind. If this TD takes that name, it will ruin Fengshen's reputation - the 2002 incarnation was a wicked Category 5 and the 2008 incarnation was a brutal Category 3. I'd rather have this become a depression or Typhoon Fengshen, please not in the middle! AndrewTalk To Me 20:48, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::If it does become Fengshen, it shouldn't last for more than a day or two as it heads northeast, paralleling southern Japan then heading out to sea. Ryan1000 21:13, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::I also hope it doesn't become Fengshen. To me that name sounds like the name of a powerful beast (in other words, a super typhoon). This invest should only peak as a moderate TS at most, but I hope it won't be named.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:12, September 7, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fengshen Sorry everyone, but Fengshen is here. It might actually not be all that weak, though; the JMA predicts a peak of 60 kts (10-min)/975 mbar, just under typhoon strength, so we could see a typhoon from this after all, if a brief one. Currently it's at 35 kts (10-min)/996 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:48, September 7, 2014 (UTC) : It looks like it's skirting Japan but they won't feel any impacts probably. Let's hope it becomes a typhoon! :) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:36, September 7, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen 55 kts (1-min and 10-min)/980 mbar, and officially forecast to peak as a typhoon now (65 kts (10-min)/970 mbar). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:21, September 8, 2014 (UTC) : Looks like Fengshen's going to become a typhoon. Hip hip horray! Luckily it won't be weak, simply because I think of the name as something powerful.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:29, September 9, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Fengshen The forecast for typhoon strength sadly never materialized :( --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:23, September 11, 2014 (UTC) :The Chinese god of wind has become the god of failure... >:( AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, September 13, 2014 (UTC) 15W.KALMAEGI Tropical Depression 15W New one, forecast to be a typhoon as it passes over the northern Philippines and eventually mainland China. Ryan1000 20:55, September 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Luis) Now named Luis by PAGASA, it's still forecast to be a cat 1 in the northern Philippines and a 2 when it hits southern China. Ryan1000 10:38, September 12, 2014 (UTC) : Hopefully they're prepared for this upcoming storm. It could possibly be something bad. Anyway, it's currently 50 kts (60 mph)/985 mbars and forecast to reach 70 kts (80 mph)/965 mbars according to the JMA by the time it reaches China. Of course, the winds are ten-minute sustained.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:57, September 13, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Kalmaegi Sorry, guys, I've been real busy lately. Anyway, Kalmaegi is wasting no time to intensify. Winds are currently at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1 and 10-minute) per both the JMA and JTWC based on T4.0 Dvorak estimates, with a pressure of 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg) per the JMA and gusts of 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h) per the JTWC. An eye feature is developing in Kalmaegi, and due to warm SST's and favorable equatorial outflow, intensification is forecast to 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute)/105 knot (120 mph) gusts per the JTWC before slamming into Luzon. The STR will keep the typhoon moving generally westwards for the rest of the forecast period, meaning China and southern Vietnam are next. Preparations are already underway in the Philippines; medical aid is being set up and PAGASA has warned citizens of conditions such as landslides. AndrewTalk To Me 21:42, September 13, 2014 (UTC) : Kalmaegi is hitting the northern Philipines as a typhoon right now, though due to the scarce population of the area it shouldn't be too severe. I'm more worried about what it'll do to southern China in the next few days. Forecast peak is still a cat 2 atm. Ryan1000 16:04, September 14, 2014 (UTC) :: It's about entering the South China sea right now, and southern China/northern Vietnam is next in its forecast cone. They might feel quite a bit of upcoming impacts from this thing. I doubt it was too bad for the Philippines.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:40, September 14, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Kamaegi (2nd time) Weakening as it moves inland over southern China/Vietnam. Ryan1000 21:28, September 16, 2014 (UTC) For the record... ...this thing was dead a long time ago. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:47, September 23, 2014 (UTC) 16W.FUNG-WONG JMA Tropical Depression Currently east of Luzon. Probably gonna follow the same route as Kalmaegi. Ryan1000 21:49, September 16, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (Mario) Or not...now forecast to turn northeast and hit Japan as a typhoon, peaking as a cat 2 before weakening to a 1. Guess I shouldn't be so reliant on the initial forecasts from storms, as they could easily change very quickly. Ryan1000 21:17, September 17, 2014 (UTC) :The names submitted by Hong Kong are one of the best /s --Isaac829 02:59, September 18, 2014 (UTC) ::It looks to be threatening Taiwan and Japan according to the JMA forecast track, and its current strength is set at 45 kts (50 mph)/990 mbars (10 minute sustained winds). Predicted to strengthen to 70 kts (80 mph). And I agree Isaac, this storm has a very awesome name. In fact, both of its names (JMA and PAGASA names) are very awesome, since I really like the name Mario. Maybe this storm can play some Super Mario Bros while he's at it? ;) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:12, September 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::Don't get too excited over Fung-Wong, latest reports from the Philippines show the capital city of Manila was flooded by Fung-Wong's rainfall. It's looking more like a Ketsana than a Haiyan though, and hopefully overall damages weren't that bad. Due to the stalling nature of the storm, it could veer further west of its projected path and hit Taiwan or mainland China instead of Japan like it was initially forecast. Ryan1000 22:24, September 19, 2014 (UTC) :::::I'm sorry to hear the Philippines flooding. Anyways, Fung-Wong is 50 knots (60 mph)/980 mbars according to the JMA, and Taiwan is next in its danger cone.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:31, September 20, 2014 (UTC) Surprised no one's updated this but according to the JMA it is now 35 kts/998 mbars and over eastern China. Predicted to remain at that strength as it approaches Japan. Hope it wasn't too bad! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:47, September 23, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fung-Wong Fung-Wong is collapsing as it passes near Shanghai, it should die soon enough. Ryan1000 20:44, September 23, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Fung-Wong Died before it reached Japan. Ryan1000 11:08, September 24, 2014 (UTC) 17W.KAMMURI JMA Tropical Depression Another one, this time it's far out to sea, and rather disorganized atm. Ryan1000 11:08, September 24, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kammuri Here, but well out to sea and forecast to remain well out to sea. Ryan1000 21:07, September 24, 2014 (UTC) Looks like another monsoon-like storm.--Isaac829 22:51, September 25, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Kammuri Kammuri is now at 50 knots (60 mph)/985 mbars (10 minute sustained winds) according to the JMA. Since it's not a land threat, we could root for this whenever we want! However, the JMA only brings it up to 55 knots/975 mbars before weakening, but I root for it to get stronger than that. C'mon Kammuri, strengthen some more! :) Oh, and does anyone know what is up with Andrew? He hasn't posted during the past couple weeks! The last time he posted was September 13. He must be very busy or something along the lines of that. If you are reading this and are actually very busy, Andrew, then you could just feel free to place a semi-retirement notice on your user page to let us know you're not that active anymore. Check this out as an example. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:38, September 27, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kammuri (2nd time) Hi, guys. Due to my schedule, I won't be able to post as much as I like. In regards to Kammuri, it looks rather quasi-tropical to me. The LLCC is rather broad, and multiple vortices have been detected in the storm. The JMA have lowered Kammuri's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute), but also lowered its pressure to 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg), while the JTWC report winds of 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Little change in intensity is expected from both agencies, and extratropical transition should begin soon for Kammuri due to interaction with the westerlies. Also, Steve, when the JMA winds of a storm reach 50 knots (60 mph), please change the header to "Severe Tropical Storm XXX"; we use the JMA intensity to determine headers on the WPAC forum. AndrewTalk To Me 11:41, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :Kammuri's LLCC has become more exposed, and deep convection has been noted only in its northeastern quadrant. Despite favorable poleward outflow, high VWS of 25 to 50 knots should prompt extratropical transition as it continues to interact with the westerlies. Winds are down to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) per both the JMA and JTWC, with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) noted by the JMA with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph) per the JTWC. Aside from potential heavy waves in Japan, I think it's safe to say Kammuri's over with for now. AndrewTalk To Me 03:06, September 28, 2014 (UTC) :::It's dying now, Kammuri should go extratropical later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 20:59, September 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::Convection is rather sheared now in the northern quadrant, and any chances of Kammuri intensifying are moot. I will note that the JTWC does forecast the storm to become a powerful cold-core low due to interaction with the westerlies. No intensity updates from either the JTWC or JMA. AndrewTalk To Me 23:09, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Kammuri Racing towards Alaska as an extratropical cyclone. Ryan1000 00:19, September 30, 2014 (UTC) 18W.PHANFONE 99W.INVEST This system, which looks loads better than Kammuri, is poised to become a tropical cyclone. Currently near Kwajalein Atoll, EIS reveals a small consolidating LLCC with flaring deep convection around the system (99W)'s center. Divergent easterly outflow is offsetting 10 to 20 knots of moderate VWS, and SST's in the region will support further development. Winds are estimated to be at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) per the JTWC; no comment from the JMA yet. I root for tropical cyclone formation as 99W moves away from Micronesia. AndrewTalk To Me 11:50, September 27, 2014 (UTC) :Although the upper-level environment would support a TC, 99W has become more broad and it has a decreased chance of formation in the next 24 hours. The TCFA has been cancelled, and the JTWC probability of formation is now medium. Winds have been lowered to 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute), with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg), per the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 03:09, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 18W Now numbered 18W, this one (Phanfone-to be) will also move west-northwest, but it'll remain south of where Kammuri went and could be a threat to southern Japan in the long run, by then it could potentially be a category 2 storm or stronger. Ryan1000 20:59, September 28, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Phanfone 40/998. Forecast track has also been updated, now it could be a cat 4 in the long run, this is definitely one to watch. Ryan1000 11:12, September 29, 2014 (UTC) : Could be very powerful, since it has lots of forecasted time over water...--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:41, September 30, 2014 (UTC) ::: This thing looks very well organized, I wouldn't be surprised if Phanfone becomes a category 5 super typhoon. Hopefully it turns away from Japan before making landfall though, I'd hate to see this thing hit them as a strong typhoon, and near the 10th anniversary of Ma-On, the last cat 3 to hit the country. Ryan1000 01:09, October 1, 2014 (UTC) :::: Yeah, it could very well be a Category 5 super typhoon, because of the large amount of forecasted time it has over water. The JMA is taking this thing to 85 knots/940 mbars by the end of the forecast period but it could easily get stronger than that. Also, as of right now, it is at 60 knots (70 mph)/975 mbars. Japan could take a big beating from this system in the long run, but the JMA is pointing the system to the Ryukyu Islands instead.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:16, October 1, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Phanfone Per Steve's post above. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:00, October 1, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Phanfone Here we go folks...this might be entering a round of RI soon, latest forecast takes Phanfone dangerously close to Tokyo as a category 3 storm. Like I said above, that would be very close to the 10th anniversary of the last cat 3 to hit the city, Ma-On on October 9 2004. Ryan1000 21:41, October 1, 2014 (UTC) : Cat 4, 130 mph, this could be a cat 5 by tomorrow. However, if it becomes stronger, it has a better chance of turning away from Japan before it makes landfall, which is good news for them. Ryan1000 10:13, October 2, 2014 (UTC) :: It's very powerful currently, and Japan could take a beating in the long run unless it strengthens to an epic winning storm that would rival Francisco and Lekima from last year. Then, like Ryan said, it could have a better chance of turning away from the Japanese guys.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 03:41, October 3, 2014 (UTC) :::: It looks like Phanfone has finished an ERC and the models are pretty confident now that it'll miss Tokyo to the south, which is good news for them. However, surf is still going to be a big threat for the southern coast of Japan. Ryan1000 14:56, October 3, 2014 (UTC) Phanfone has now made landfall southwest of Tokyo at 70 kts/80 mph/955 mbars. I hope it won't be too bad for all those guys in the area.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:57, October 5, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Phanfone Phanfone turned extratropical as he races northeast out to sea. Due to the rapid movement of the storm, little damage was reported in the Tokyo area, though 1 person died. Ryan1000 01:22, October 7, 2014 (UTC)